Holiday weight gain and why it may still be there in spring

Eating patterns can change even when energy expenditure does not

“Cold weather meant less exercise” is an appealing explanation for holiday gain. A small observational study of 23 adults with obesity, 87% of whom were women, found a more complicated pattern. Average weight change was −0.86 kg before the holidays and 0.41 kg during them, with a significant difference between periods. Total energy expenditure, however, was reported to be unchanged.[17]

The study evaluated total energy expenditure using doubly labeled water, a method that estimates energy use in everyday life from changes in marker components in water. It aims to assess overall energy use rather than relying only on reported exercise minutes. Weight comparisons covered mid-September to mid-November before the holidays and mid-November to early January during them. Holiday expenditure measurements used data from early to mid-December. The measurement windows are part of understanding what was assessed.[17]

Participants reported more occasions eating at sit-down restaurants during the holidays. Lower satisfaction after a test meal was associated with greater weight gain, and energy intake showed an upward tendency of 80 kcal per day. That intake difference was not statistically significant. The researchers considered increased eating the more likely explanation, but the result does not establish that an extra 80 kcal per day caused the observed gain.[17]

The practical questions extend beyond whether an exercise appointment disappeared. Did invitations create more eating occasions? Did restaurant meals become a regular feature of the break? Did you keep adding food after the usual meal had ended? Detailed questions about eating out and portion sizes belong to those topics; here the focus is the period when routines change.[17]

An observational study of 148 adults provides another caution about exercise alone. Average weight increased by 0.78 kg, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.57–0.99 kg. For this holiday-period comparison, the interval describes uncertainty in the group’s estimated average increase of 0.78 kg, rather than the range of individual gains. Self-reported exercise was not identified as protection against holiday weight gain in this study.[18]

Participants included 48 men and 100 women aged 18–65, assessed in mid-November and early January. Reported exercise averaged 4.8 hours per week, but it was not a significant predictor of changes in weight or body fat percentage. That amount is a description of the sample, not an effective exercise dose established by the study. Continuing activity and paying attention to eating are therefore separate parts of a holiday routine; logging an exercise session cannot certify that intake has balanced it.[18]

Making weight visible helped in trials, with important limits

A British randomized trial involving 272 adults combined regular weighing, recording weight and reflecting on its trajectory with weight-management advice and information about the physical activity equivalent of festive foods and drinks. The comparison group received a healthy-living leaflet. At follow-up 4–8 weeks after baseline, average weight change was −0.13 kg in the intervention group and 0.37 kg in the comparison group.[4]

After adjustment for starting weight and attendance at a commercial weight-loss program, the difference between groups was −0.49 kg, with a 95% confidence interval of −0.85 to −0.13 kg. This supported a smaller increase with the intervention on the average-weight outcome. A separate outcome, gaining no more than 0.5 kg, did not show a significant group difference. The odds ratio for meeting that goal was 1.22, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.74–2.00.[4]

An odds ratio compares the odds of an outcome between groups. Here, the uncertainty included no difference. The favorable average-weight result and the nonsignificant goal-attainment result should both be retained. They answer different questions: how the groups compared on average, and whether participants were more likely to stay within the specified gain limit. Choosing only the favorable outcome would make the intervention sound more certain than the complete findings support.[4]

Participants were adults aged at least 18 with a BMI of at least 20; 136 were assigned to each group. BMI is an index of body size. The intervention aimed to encourage restraint in eating and drinking through a package of measurement, advice and activity information. It was more than standing on a scale. Reflecting on the direction of weight change and connecting that information to eating were part of the intended process.[4]

In the 111-adult trial, daily weighing was paired with a graph showing weight changes and a goal of not exceeding preholiday weight. Average holiday change was −0.13 kg in the intervention group, significantly different from the control group’s gain of 2.65 kg. Within the intervention group, participants with overweight or obesity lost an average of 1.46 kg, while those with normal weight had an average change of 0.33 kg. That subgroup difference was significant.[8]

The wider prevention evidence remains uncertain

Promising individual trials sit within a less certain overall evidence base. A 2024 systematic review included 12 studies of interventions intended to prevent holiday gain. Its adult meta-analysis statistically combined the results of 5 studies during festive periods. The average difference favored intervention by −0.99 kg, but the 95% confidence interval ran from −2.15 to 0.18 kg, including the possibility of no difference.[2]

Results differed substantially between studies, and certainty in the adult pooled evidence was rated very low. Many studies in the wider review had a high risk of bias, meaning features of their methods could distort the results. Pooling studies does not remove those limitations. The overall finding therefore cannot support a guarantee that a particular holiday-prevention method works simply because an individual trial was successful.[2]

A 2023 systematic review of winter holidays organized 10 studies with 4,627 participants and discussed examples of weight remaining elevated after studies ended, alongside the need for continuing support. It searched a single database for adult studies published in English over the previous 10 years, without restricting study design. That search scope matters when deciding how comprehensive the review’s conclusions can be.[1]

The review identified supervised exercise and workplace dietary management as possible strategies for people with metabolic syndrome or weight problems. Its emphasis on continuing support gives a practical direction: do not make the end of the celebration the end of attention to the routine. The effectiveness and size of benefit from a specific method still need to be judged against controlled comparisons and the uncertain pooled evidence.[1][2]

Common misconceptions

“If the average gain is small, I can ignore it.” This confuses the size of an increase with how long it lasts. In the adult follow-up study, a small average holiday increase was not adequately reversed afterward. The study does not provide a threshold below which lasting gain is automatically harmless. Its relevant comparison is how weight changed from before the break and whether that difference persisted. A population average is context, not a substitute for your own trajectory.[20]

“Exercise means I can eat as much as I like.” The research discussed here does not establish that. Self-reported exercise did not protect against gain in one observational study, while the small study using an energy-expenditure measure observed gain without a decrease in total expenditure. Exercise history alone cannot explain or cancel changes in eating. Those results support considering both parts of the routine, while avoiding a claim that exercise has no value.[17][18]

“Daily weighing always prevents holiday gain.” Daily weighing with a graph and a preholiday goal worked in a trial, but the wider pooled adult intervention result was not statistically clear. Frequency alone is too narrow a definition of success. The trial connected measurement with feedback; the review adds uncertainty about prevention across studies. A record can help you notice a pattern, but it should not be described as a guaranteed defense against it.[2][8]

What you can do today

• Record your preholiday and postholiday weights, with their dates, in the same record. If the break has already ended, use today’s measurement as your starting point and follow the subsequent change. After the holidays, compare with the preholiday value as well as the New Year peak: the trial’s control group still retained 57% of its gain after 14 weeks.[8][20]
• If trying daily weighing, plot each day’s value on a graph and review the trend against your preholiday weight. The trial combined daily measurements with a graph and the goal of not exceeding that baseline, rather than relying on the number of measurements alone.[8]
• When festive meals follow one another, decide deliberately whether to add food or drinks, and adjust intake while reviewing your weight trend. The British intervention combined restraint of eating and drinking with weight records and advice; follow-up was 4–8 weeks after baseline.[4]
• For people with metabolic syndrome or weight problems, consider an exercise program with an instructor during the winter holidays. The review identified supervised exercise and workplace dietary management as possible strategies for this population. Follow the participating program’s duration and intensity.[1]
• Review how your holiday routine changed in time spent sitting, drinking occasions and time spent sleeping, alongside exercise. In the Japanese student survey, longer holiday sitting time in men, and more frequent drinking and shorter sleep in women, were associated with longer retention of winter weight gain. These are aspects of the routine to check, rather than proven causes of recovery.[9]

A weekly place beyond the holiday peak at On the Shore Tachikawa

The end of the holiday break is a chance to reconnect with your usual movement habit. On the Shore Tachikawa offers a place to continue that habit as ordinary work and family routines resume.

The studio is open every day 8:00–23:30 and is a 1-minute walk from the North Exit of JR Tachikawa Station. Its address is 3F of the Etoile Bldg, 2-14-10 Akebonocho, Tachikawa, Tokyo. See the studio information when considering a weekly time alongside work and family commitments. Pregnant guests cannot join lava-stone hot yoga; room-temperature maternity yoga is available. Guests told by a doctor not to exercise cannot join.

Alongside lava-stone hot yoga and room-temperature yoga, the studio offers Pilates, women-only kickboxercise, boxercise, HIIT and personal training. There are more than 25 kinds of yoga lessons. Many of our yoga instructors speak English, and the studio’s owner often helps guests from the US bases in English herself. A trial yoga lesson costs ¥1,980 including tax and includes a 60-minute lesson, 2 bath towels, 1 face towel and mat rental. Review the prices and participation conditions before making a trial booking for a lesson that fits your postholiday calendar.

References

1. Winter Holidays and Their Impact on Eating Behavior—A Systematic Review — I. Abdulan et al., 2023, Nutrients. DOI: 10.3390/nu15194201
2. Interventions for the prevention of weight gain during festive and holiday periods in children and adults: A systematic review — D. E. Guerrero-Magaña et al., 2024, Obesity Reviews. DOI: 10.1111/obr.13836
3. Effectiveness of a brief behavioural intervention to prevent weight gain over the Christmas holiday period: randomised controlled trial — F. Mason et al., 2018, The BMJ. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.k4867
4. Effect of the Holiday Season on Weight Gain: A Narrative Review — R. G. Díaz-Zavala et al., 2017, Journal of Obesity. DOI: 10.1155/2017/2085136
5. Daily Self‐Weighing to Prevent Holiday‐Associated Weight Gain in Adults — Sepideh Kaviani et al., 2019, Obesity. DOI: 10.1002/oby.22454
6. Nutritional and behavioral factors associated with the occurrence and duration of winter weight gain. — Asumi Yoshida, 2026, Nutrition and health. DOI: 10.1177/02601060261432864
7. The Relationship Between Feasting Periods and Weight Gain: a Systematic Scoping Review — C. Zorbas et al., 2020, Current Obesity Reports. DOI: 10.1007/s13679-020-00370-5
8. Persistence of Body Composition Changes Observed During the Winter Holiday Period: A Three-Time-Point, One-Year Longitudinal Study — Ion-Vladut Udroiu et al., 2026, Medicina. DOI: 10.3390/medicina62030511
9. Change in eating pattern as a contributor to energy intake and weight gain during the winter holiday period in obese adults — Surabhi Bhutani et al., 2020, International journal of obesity (2005). DOI: 10.1038/s41366-020-0562-2
10. Effects of exercise during the holiday season on changes in body weight, body composition and blood pressure — Jada L. Stevenson et al., 2013, European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. DOI: 10.1038/ejcn.2013.98
11. A prospective study of holiday weight gain. — J. Yanovski et al., 2000, The New England journal of medicine. DOI: 10.1056/nejm200003233421206

Cover photo: An assortment of Japanese New Year osechi dishes arranged in tiered serving boxes. (Photo: Akihito Kurono (Bokensdorf) / CC0 / Wikimedia Commons)

Information as of October 2026. For your own health, consult a doctor.

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