
Water comparisons and observational studies ask different questions
Harrold and colleagues directly compared water with nonnutritive sweetened beverages, but their trial was more than a drink experiment. It included 493 adults with BMI between 27 and 35 kg/m².[17] Participants were randomly assigned to water or nonnutritive sweetened drinks while also taking part in a group behavioral weight-management program.[17] The program is part of the setting in which the drink comparison was tested.
At 12 weeks, weight changes were −5.6 kg in the water group and −5.8 kg in the sweetened-drink group. The groups were equivalent. The between-group difference was −0.2 kg, with a 90% confidence interval of −0.7 to 0.4 kg.[17] Notice that this was a 90% interval, whereas most intervals reported elsewhere here are 95%. Keeping the reported interval level matters when reading how the authors describe the uncertainty. The total losses in either group also differ from the much smaller difference between groups.
The 52-week report from the same trial found that the water group maintained a loss of 6.1 kg and the sweetened-drink group a loss of 7.5 kg.[6] The difference was statistically significant, but the authors did not consider it clinically significant.[6] Statistical significance concerns detecting a difference in the analysis. Clinical significance concerns whether its size has meaningful practical importance. A detectable difference need not be a large reason for every reader to change an already workable drink habit.
Participants attended meetings weekly during weight loss and monthly during maintenance.[6] The losses occurred within that supported program. Saying that sweetened drinks alone caused a 7.5 kg reduction would omit the conditions under which the result happened.[6] The trial was also open-label: participants and staff knew the assigned drinks.[6][17] These details help define the limits of the evidence. The result is a comparison of drinking choices during behavioral support, rather than a promise about a bottle used independently of any other change.
Long-term observational research supplies another part of the picture. Azad and colleagues’ systematic review included 7 trials and 30 observational studies involving adults and adolescents. The observational studies included 405,907 participants, with a median follow-up of 10 years.[14] The trials found no significant effect on BMI: the mean difference was −0.37 kg/m², with a 95% confidence interval of −1.10 to 0.36 kg/m². Observational studies, meanwhile, associated nonnutritive sweetener consumption with a modest increase in BMI.[14]
Those observational studies also reported associations with higher incidence of hypertension, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular events. They did not establish that sweeteners caused those outcomes.[14] Studies assessing diabetes showed indications of publication bias, meaning that the likelihood of a result being published may depend on the result itself.[14] Equally, an association with disease cannot by itself settle a causal question about an ingredient.
Buso and colleagues analyzed 5 European cohorts involving 82,719 adults aged 18–89 years, with follow-up ranging from 1 to 9 years.[15] These cohorts tracked beverage consumption and subsequent weight changes over time rather than assigning drinks.[15] Low- or no-calorie sweetened drink consumption was associated with weight gain of 0.06 kg per year, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.04 to 0.08 kg. There was no association with waist circumference. Theoretical replacement analyses, including replacing sugary drinks with water or low-calorie sweetened drinks, also found no clear associations.[15]
The word theoretical carries weight here. These were estimates derived from observed data, rather than trials assigning people to replace particular drinks.[15] The researchers assessed beverage consumption with food-frequency questionnaires and adjusted their analyses for major confounding factors.[15] Such research can follow people over longer stretches of ordinary life. It still differs from a randomized intervention, and adjustment does not turn a modeled replacement into an actual assigned change.
One possible explanation for an apparent disagreement is the order in which events happen. A person concerned about increasing weight may switch from sugar-sweetened drinks to low-calorie alternatives. In that situation, concern about weight comes before the drink choice. This is a possibility to consider when interpreting an association, rather than proof that it explains the reported results. The timing of drink use and the timing of weight change are both relevant to the question.
Toews and colleagues found no detected differences for many health outcomes. Many contributing studies were small, short and limited in methodological or reporting quality.[19] Recognizing a small short- or medium-term weight difference does not establish long-term health benefit or safety.[19] Keeping weight, disease incidence, follow-up length and study design visible allows the conflicting evidence to remain useful. Each answers part of the problem; none gains a broader answer merely by being reduced to a striking headline.
初日の汗は、予約した人だけが持ち帰れる。
Make replacements available and keep sweeteners distinct
An instruction to stop drinking something and having an alternative ready are different practical conditions. Tobiassen and colleagues selected trials that replaced existing sugary-drink consumption with noncaloric beverages, including water, unsweetened drinks and artificially sweetened drinks. Follow-up had to last at least 6 months.[11] Their meta-analysis included 6 trials and 1,729 children and adults. BMI was lower by an average of 0.31 kg/m² compared with the sugary-drink groups; the reported 95% confidence interval for the reduction was 0.17 to 0.44 kg/m².[11]
However, the review included a trial in which BMI moved back toward baseline after intervention ended.[11] Ebbeling and colleagues’ individual trial assigned 224 adolescents with overweight or obesity who regularly drank sugary beverages to an intervention or control group. The intervention included providing noncaloric drinks at home for 1 year, followed by another year without intervention.[18] This changed what was available in the household as well as asking participants to change what they drank.
At 1 year, the between-group difference in weight change was −1.9 kg, and the BMI difference was −0.57; both were significant. At 2 years, the prespecified primary assessment point, the BMI difference was −0.3 and was not significant.[18] Results from adolescents cannot simply be transferred to middle-aged adults. The trial nevertheless illustrates why a difference measured during support and a difference measured after support finishes need separate attention.
Think about where the next drink decision will occur: on the way home after working late, while waiting for dinner, or when buying household supplies. If the planned alternative is missing, the decision changes. The home-provision trial addressed that environment.[18] In its intervention group, sugary-drink intake fell from 1.7 servings per day at baseline to nearly 0 at 1 year. Intake remained lower than in controls at 2 years, although the primary BMI difference was not significant.[18] Continued differences in drinking behavior and continued differences in body weight are separate outcomes. One does not guarantee the other.
There is another limit to broad claims: individual sweeteners may differ. Higgins and colleagues randomized 154 adults with overweight or obesity, aged 18–60 years, to drinks containing sugar or different low-calorie sweeteners. The trial lasted 12 weeks. Participants drank 1.25–1.75 L daily; drinks in the sugar group provided 400–560 kcal per day, while the low-calorie sweetened drinks provided less than 5 kcal per day.[20] This was a substantial, specified daily quantity, rather than an occasional drink chosen without a set amount.
Of those enrolled, 123 completed the trial. Average weight increased by 1.85 kg in the sugar group and 1.18 kg in the saccharin group. There was no significant change from baseline in the aspartame, sucralose or rebaudioside A groups. Weight change in the sucralose group was lower than in the other low-calorie sweetener groups.[20] The authors concluded that sweeteners should be considered separately because their weight effects differed.[20]
This experiment does not create a shopping ranking in which finding a particular sweetener guarantees weight loss. It tested specific drinks in substantial daily amounts under particular conditions.[20] It cannot represent every food, every amount or every occasion on which those ingredients appear. Reading the label remains useful, but the research supports attention to the actual substance and comparison rather than treating every artificial sweetener as identical or any one of them as a dependable weight-loss agent.

Common misconceptions
“Adding a sugar-free sweet drink will help me lose weight.” The favorable weight findings in the beverage analysis centered on replacing sugar-sweetened drinks. Replacing water with sweetened alternatives showed no clear weight difference.[12] Addition and substitution are different changes. Before applying a result, identify which existing drink would leave your routine. If nothing leaves, the favorable replacement comparison does not describe the choice you are making.
“Observational studies linked sweeteners to weight gain, so sweeteners caused it.” Long-term studies reported associations with weight or BMI increases, but they did not settle causation.[14][15] Shorter trials measuring weight and longer observational studies assessing disease occurrence also examine different outcomes over different periods.[12][19] Their results should inform the same discussion without being forced to answer exactly the same question. Preserving those differences is how we avoid dismissing either unfavorable associations or modest trial benefits.
“A trial favored sweetened drinks over water, so everyone should switch.” In the supported adult program, weight loss was equivalent at 12 weeks. At 52 weeks, the authors judged the statistically significant difference clinically insignificant.[6][17] Existing drinking habits, preferences and the presence of behavioral support belong beside those results. The total loss achieved within the program is not the size of a beverage’s independent effect, and the result does not prescribe a new drink for every person already comfortable with water.
A nonsignificant result also deserves more than a quick label of success or failure. In Li’s subgroup with obesity, the confidence interval included no difference.[1] That limits confidence in a dependable weight benefit. Consider both the estimated size and the remaining uncertainty. You can make an ordinary drink choice while accepting that the evidence has not resolved every long-term question about the category.
What you can do today
- Replace a habitual sugary drink each day with water or an unsweetened option. Adult trials reducing sugary drinks found an average weight difference of −0.49 kg relative to controls.[2] Start with the drink you regularly reach for, and keep expectations in line with that small average difference.
- At your next shopping trip, stock water or unsweetened alternatives in place of household sugary drinks. In the adolescent trial that included providing noncaloric drinks at home for 1 year, sugary-drink consumption fell from 1.7 servings per day to nearly 0 during intervention.[18] Those amounts describe the adolescents studied; having an alternative available is the practical idea to take into your own household.
- If unsweetened choices are difficult, use a low- or no-calorie sweetened drink as a substitute for your usual sugary one. The meta-analysis of daily caloric-sugar replacement found significant weight differences in studies shorter than 18 weeks, with no significant effect in longer studies.[1] Treat sweetness as an optional bridge away from sugar, and check which drink it replaces before making it part of your routine.
- Avoid adding sweets or extra food because you changed your drink. Reducing sugars and exchanging them for other carbohydrates at equal energy produced different weight findings.[3] Keep the replacement within your existing eating pattern: the bottle’s label does not establish that your total intake has fallen or justify increasing it elsewhere.
- If you are receiving medical treatment, consult your doctor before changing your drinks or diet. The water comparison included blood-glucose and blood-pressure differences that moved in different directions.[12] Discuss drink choices in that broader health context, rather than assuming a weight finding applies to every measure relevant to your treatment.

From drink replacements to weekly movement at On the Shore Tachikawa
Choosing an alternative to your usual sugary drink is one everyday habit; making room for regular movement is another. On the Shore Tachikawa (オンザショア立川店) offers a place to keep that movement habit going. The lava-stone hot yoga studio is open every day 8:00–23:30. Its address is 3F Etoile Bldg, 2-14-10 Akebonocho, Tachikawa, Tokyo, a 1-minute walk from the North Exit of JR Tachikawa Station.
Before choosing a lesson, check the participation conditions. Pregnant guests cannot join lava-stone hot yoga; room-temperature maternity yoga is available. Anyone whose doctor has advised against exercise cannot participate. Many of our yoga instructors speak English, and the studio’s owner often helps guests from the US bases in English herself.
For a yoga trial, the ¥1,980 tax-inclusive price covers a 60-minute lesson and rental of a yoga mat, 2 bath towels and 1 face towel. The trial booking page is available for arranging a visit.
Alongside more than 25 kinds of yoga lessons, the studio has room-temperature yoga, Pilates, personal training, HIIT, boxercise and women-only kickboxercise. Consult the studio website for the lesson options and the prices page for costs when deciding what fits your weekly schedule.
References
- Effects of non-nutritive sweeteners on body weight: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trial (RCT) studies — Dongxu Li et al., 2025, Journal of Endocrinological Investigation. DOI: 10.1007/s40618-025-02654-w
- Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and weight gain in children and adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials. — M. Nguyen et al., 2022, The American journal of clinical nutrition. DOI: 10.1016/j.ajcnut.2022.11.008
- Dietary sugars and body weight: systematic review and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials and cohort studies — L. T. Te Morenga et al., 2012, BMJ : British Medical Journal. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.e7492
- Non-nutritive sweetened beverages versus water after a 52-week weight management programme: a randomised controlled trial — J. Harrold et al., 2023, International Journal of Obesity (2005). DOI: 10.1038/s41366-023-01393-3
- Substitution of sugar‐sweetened beverages with non‐caloric alternatives and weight change: A systematic review of randomized trials and meta‐analysis — Philip A-S Tobiassen et al., 2023, Obesity Reviews. DOI: 10.1111/obr.13652
- Association of Low- and No-Calorie Sweetened Beverages as a Replacement for Sugar-Sweetened Beverages With Body Weight and Cardiometabolic Risk — Néma D McGlynn et al., 2022, JAMA Network Open. DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.2092
- Nonnutritive sweeteners and cardiometabolic health: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials and prospective cohort studies — M. Azad et al., 2017, Canadian Medical Association Journal. DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.161390
- Sugar and low/no-calorie-sweetened beverage consumption and associations with body weight and waist circumference changes in five European cohort studies: the SWEET project — Marion E. C. Buso et al., 2023, European Journal of Nutrition. DOI: 10.1007/s00394-023-03192-y
- Effects of non‐nutritive sweetened beverages versus water after a 12‐week weight‐loss program: A randomized controlled trial — J. Harrold et al., 2023, Obesity. DOI: 10.1002/oby.23796
- A Randomized Trial of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages and Adolescent Body Weight — C. Ebbeling et al., 2012, The New England journal of medicine. DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa1203388
- Association between intake of non-sugar sweeteners and health outcomes: systematic review and meta-analyses of randomised and non-randomised controlled trials and observational studies — Ingrid Toews et al., 2019, The BMJ. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.k4718
- A randomized controlled trial contrasting the effects of 4 low-calorie sweeteners and sucrose on body weight in adults with overweight or obesity. — K. Higgins et al., 2019, The American journal of clinical nutrition. DOI: 10.1093/ajcn/nqy381
Cover photo: Individually wrapped sugar cubes are shown in their separate small packages. (Photo: Викидим / CC BY 4.0 / Wikimedia Commons)
Information as of October 2026. For your own health, consult a doctor.
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初日の汗は、予約した人だけが持ち帰れる。
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